According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), BTC’s rally to $125K occurred just days before a government shutdown and was followed by a substantial market decline, yet the current drawdown remains comparable to prior bull market corrections (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 16, 2025). According to Michaël van de Poppe, approximately $60B of fresh ETF-driven liquidity helped propel a new all-time high before the halving, causing this cycle’s time-based performance to diverge from previous cycles (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 16, 2025). According to Michaël van de Poppe, the supply-demand setup is shifting as annual new supply declines to roughly 150K BTC post-halving while miners sell some coins for expenses and hold a portion, and about 60K BTC has been accumulated by Bitcoin ETFs over the past 18 months (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 16, 2025). According to Michaël van de Poppe, it is short-sighted to assume a finished 4-year cycle top purely on halving-timing models because market participants, institutional demand, and macro conditions are evolving, with Bitcoin still trading around $100K in a difficult risk-on environment (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 16, 2025). According to Michaël van de Poppe, traders should track ETF net flows, miner selling pressure, and macro risk appetite to judge whether this remains a standard bull-market correction rather than a confirmed cycle peak (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 16, 2025).